Tim Dillow
Oct 14, 2025
Q3 2025 Review
Summary The economic outlook at the close of Q3 2025 is marked by significant fiscal and geopolitical uncertainty. The One, Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBBA) is projected to add $4.1–$5.5 trillion to the national debt, potentially pushing debt-to-GDP over 130%. Inflation is expected to rise to 3.0–3.5% by Q4 2025, driven by the current 15.8% effective tariff rate (the highest since the 1930s). Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are keeping a risk premium on oil, delaying the

