Tim Dillow
Feb 18, 2025
Q1 2025 Outlook
The latest data suggest the U.S. may print a negative real GDP number in the first quarter, but that alone does not mean the economy is in recession. Are we already in a recession? Most traditional indicators still point to a slowing but growing economy, not a fullblown recession. A negative Q1 real GDP print—Atlanta Fed tracking has dipped into negative territory before—can happen even in the middle of an expansion, especially when data are distorted by weather, oneoff shock
